In a time of great geopolitical uncertainty, Indian PM Modi’s visit to Moscow has generated considerable debate
12-07-2024
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Russia on 8 and 9 July may have been short, but it set off a string of views and opinions from neighbouring Ukraine, and the more distant United States (US). In his first foreign bilateral visit during his third term, Modi arrived in Moscow on the evening of 8 July and was hosted by President Vladimir Putin at his official country residence in Novo-Ogaryovo for dinner. Upon Modi’s arrival, the two leaders were photographed embracing warmly and they then had an informal tête-à-tête over tea. The photos of Modi and Putin hugging each other circulated globally. The following day, Modi laid a wreath at the tomb of the Unknown Soldier before visiting an exhibition pavilion of Rosatom, the Russian State atomic energy corporation, which is involved in the construction of India’s Kudankulam nuclear power plant. Modi’s entourage then proceeded to the Kremlin, where restricted and delegation-level talks were held, and these marked Modi’s final engagement in Moscow. He received Russia’s Order of St Andrew the Apostle, the highest honour granted by the Russian Federation, during the visit. While Russia has described Modi’s visit as “game-changing”, Ukraine viewed it as a “huge disappointment”, and the US said it was carefully watching the visit unfold. So what did Modi’s visit to Moscow actually mean for India?
Roman Babushkin, the Charge d’Affaires at the Russian Embassy in New Delhi, said on 10 July that Modi’s two-day visit to Moscow and his summit-level talks with Putin were “historic and game-changing”, especially considering the turbulent geopolitical environment in which it took place. Babushkin added that the visit was watched by the whole world, and it was therefore evident how significant the trip was. He informed that the focus of the talks between the two leaders was on expanding India-Russia trade and economic ties. Highlighting the key outcomes of the summit talks, Babushkin inter alia said India and Russia had decided to go ahead with a bilateral payment system using national currencies. On India’s demand that Russia ensure the return of Indians working in the Russian Army, Babushkin said, “We are on same page with India on this issue. We hope it will be resolved soon”. While the agenda for the 22nd India-Russia summit was mostly economic, Modi had strongly sought from Putin the release of all Indian nationals serving in the Russian army. India’s Foreign Secretary Vinay Kwatra said there was a “sense of promise” from Russia on the early discharge of the about 30-40 Indian nationals who are still there, after being “misled” into joining the Russian army.
The joint statement issued during Modi’s visit reaffirmed the commitment of both sides to a resilient India-Russia relationship, as part of which the two leaders sought to further boost energy and trade ties and agreed to ramp up trade to $100 billion by 2030 from the current $65 billion. They also agreed to focus on increased supplies of goods from India to Russia to address the trade imbalance. The two sides also signed nine agreements, including one for facilitation of investment by Russian companies in the Indian market. Modi thanked Putin for the continued supply of fertilizers to Indian farmers when the world was facing a crisis in the fuel and energy sector, saying it was because of Russia-India cooperation that India was able to provide for the needs of its citizens.
Reiterating what senior Indian officials have asserted in the past, Modi said that the world should recognize that India-Russia cooperation in the energy sector ensured stability in the world market. He also told Putin that “In many countries of the world, people face problems with fuel, diesel, but thanks to our agreements with you in this area, in the energy sector, we were able to provide our citizens with fuel. And not only did we provide it, we were able to keep inflation under control and also ensured stability. For this I am very grateful to you”. Foreign Secretary Kwatra later elaborated that India was also looking at energy deals with Russian giants like Rosneft. He said, “The two leaders, when they spoke of cooperation in energy, they did focus on how exactly to strengthen that partnership... how exactly India in particular through the government-to-government route could also build partnerships with Rosneft and other energy entities”.
On regional and global issues, the two leaders expressed deep concern over the situation in Gaza and called for unhindered delivery of humanitarian assistance to the Palestinian civilian population throughout the Gaza Strip, while also seeking immediate and unconditional release of hostages. Like in the past, the leaders unequivocally condemned terrorism and violent extremism conducive to terrorism in all its forms and manifestations including the cross-border movement of terrorists, and terrorism financing networks and safe havens. The joint statement informed that “They strongly condemned the recent dastardly terrorist attack on an Army convoy in Kathua area of Jammu and Kashmir on July 8, in Dagestan on June 23 and on the Crocus City Hall in Moscow on March 22 and stressed that these terrorist attacks are a grim reminder for further strengthening cooperation to combat terrorism”.
PM Modi raised with the Russian President the need to address the delay in supply of spare parts for Russian-origin defence equipment. According to the joint statement, the two sides agreed to encourage joint manufacturing in India of spare parts, components, aggregates and other products for maintenance of Russian-origin arms and defence equipment under the Make-in-India programme through transfer of technology and setting up of joint ventures for meeting the needs of the Indian armed forces.
On the Ukraine issue, the joint statement highlighted the imperative of peaceful resolution of the conflict “around Ukraine” through dialogue and diplomacy, including engagement between the two parties. A few hours before Modi’s arrival in Russia, multiple Russian missile strikes had hit Ukrainian cities, killing 31 people. Ukraine said that at least one of them hit the country’s largest paediatric facility, a children’s hospital in Kyiv. Amidst outrage in Western capitals, Russia denied this while saying that its targets were military, and it blamed the blast on Ukraine’s air defence system. Contrasting the photos of Modi holding Putin in a warm embrace with images of the damaged children’s hospital in Kyiv, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy posted on X that it was a “huge disappointment and a devastating blow to peace efforts to see the leader of the world’s largest democracy hug the world’s most bloody criminal in Moscow on such a day”. Zelenskyy had met with Modi last month on the sidelines of the G-7 summit in Italy, just ahead of the Swiss peace summit. This was the first time that the Ukrainian President had directly criticized India since the beginning of the Ukraine war.
The Indian delegation, however, felt that the Ukrainian President’s harsh comments were misplaced, and they pointed out that in his public remarks at the Kremlin before he and Putin went in for closed door delegation level talks, Modi had stressed to Putin that “Your excellency, let’s take war, any conflict or terrorist act: any person who believes in humanity feels pain when people die, and especially when innocent children die. When we feel such pain, the heart simply explodes, and I had the opportunity to talk about these issues with you yesterday”. He added that “bombs, bullets and guns cannot bring peace”, and reiterated that “dialogue is necessary”. Modi said that he had come away from his informal dinner with Putin with “positive views” about the restoration of peace, and added, “As I listened to you, I felt hopeful about the future”.
Following the conclusion of Modi’s visit, the US State Department, for the second day in a row, on 10 July expressed “concerns about India’s relationship with Russia”. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller told reporters at his daily news conference that “We have been quite clear about our concerns about India’s relationship with Russia. We have expressed those privately directly to the Indian government, and continue to do so. And that has not changed”. Asked whether the US had raised the issue recently, Miller confirmed that “We have had conversations with them in the past 24 hours”. He said that the US continues to “urge India to support efforts to realise an enduring and just peace in Ukraine, based on the principles of the UN charter, based on upholding Ukraine's territorial integrity and its sovereignty. And that will continue to be what we will engage with India about”. A day earlier, Miller had said that “India is a strategic partner with whom we engage in a full and frank dialogue. And that includes our concerns about their relationship with Russia. I will look at Prime Minister Modi's public remarks to see what he talked about. But as I said, we made quite clear directly with India our concerns about their relationship with Russia”.
On 9 July, Pentagon spokesperson Major General Pat Ryder had said that “India and Russia have had a relationship for a very long time. From a US perspective, India is a strategic partner with whom we continue to engage in full and frank dialogue to include their relationship with Russia. As it relates to the NATO summit being this week, of course, like you, the world is focused on that. I do not think anybody will be surprised if President Putin tries to represent this visit in a way that seeks to somehow show that he is not isolated from the rest of the world. And the fact of the matter is President Putin’s war of choice has isolated Russia from the rest of the world, and it has come at great cost... So we will continue to view India as a strategic partner. We will continue to have a robust dialogue with them”.
Indian official sources were quoted in the media as responding to these comments by saying that India has “always called for respecting the UN Charter, including territorial integrity and sovereignty. There is no solution on the battlefield. Dialogue and diplomacy is the way forward”. They noted that Modi had categorically and publicly conveyed these views to Putin.
Analysts such as Ian Hall believe that despite India’s desire to sustain its foreign policy independence, “the Indian PM could have kept Putin at a distance”. Writing for the Lowy Institute, Hall, however, pointed to a shift in relative power in the bilateral relationship and Russia’s diminishing usefulness to India. He wrote, “The latter is now the dominant partner, with an economy soon to be twice the size of Russia’s, positive demographics, and strong strategic partnerships with multiple major powers, including the United States and Japan. By contrast, Russia is mired in long-term decline – a process accelerated by Putin’s strategic folly in Ukraine. For this reason, Moscow is becoming less and less useful to India and New Delhi has turned to other partners to meet its various needs”. Hall also alluded to the view of other analysts such as Ved Shinde who believe that India needs to arrest Russia’s slide towards becoming a Chinese vassal, something they think has been hastened by the West’s response to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
Hilal Mir, writing for the Turkish Anadolu Agency, on 11 July quoted Praveen Donthi, senior analyst for India at the International Crisis Group, as assessing that Modi’s balancing act came as no surprise. Donthi said, “India’s most trusted and time-tested bilateral relationship is probably with Russia. It’s been at the heart of India’s foreign and strategic policy for a long time. It strengthened after the 1971 rapprochement between the US and China, with its archrival Pakistan already close to them. New Delhi signed a treaty with Moscow to balance the alliance”.
He pointed out that Moscow “helped India by sharing nuclear technology when the West was reluctant”, and added that “There remains a strong affinity for Russia among the Indian foreign policy establishment and some residual distrust of the West. Though India is steadily moving closer towards the US and other Western allies, that aspect might not overwhelm India-Russia relations”. Donthi, like Shinde, also feels that India “believes in giving Russia more options and avenues to engage with, rather than leave it alone to China”.
Chietigj Bajpaee, a senior research fellow for South Asia at Chatham House, suggested that “As the first State visit of his third term, Modi’s visit to Russia seeks to reassure Putin of the importance of the bilateral relationship at a time when India is deepening relations with the West”. However, Bajpaee expressed the opinion that “By reinforcing ties with Russia, India positions itself in a precarious position, straddling a line between competing global powers”.
Amidst these opinions and views, Modi’s visit to Russia actually ends up coming across as a testament to the complexities that a country could encounter due to antagonistic and muddled contemporary international relations while it seeks to retain focus on its core national interests.
