Nepalese Prime Minister Prachanda’s India visit: an opportunity for two neighbours to reassert their age-old special ties
02-06-2023
Bilateral visits of the leaders of India and Nepal to each other’s countries are always important events, taken seriously by both sides, as the ties that bind the two countries are civilizational, the borders that demarcate them open, and the affinity between their peoples rooted in deep socio-religious and economic bases. When Nepalese Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal arrived in India on 31 May on a four-day official visit at the invitation of his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi, he received a welcome that conveyed that seriousness and that warmth. Prachanda, as Dahal is popularly known, also let the scope of the relationship be widely known as he arrived heading a four dozen-strong official delegation that comprised at least five ministers of his cabinet, in addition to the Chief Secretary, other secretaries, and senior government officials. By the time Prachanda returns to Kathmandu from his ongoing visit on 3 June, he would have met the bulk of India’s top leadership and signed several important agreements. In the scheme of things in Nepali politics, a successful visit to New Delhi and cordiality with the Indian leadership does lend a certain heft to Nepalese leaders.
Prachanda’s visit to New Delhi, his first foreign visit after assuming office last December, is taking place after being postponed a few times. In an earlier stint as premier Prachanda had chosen to go to China first, but now with the cautionary tales of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) woes of Sri Lanka and Pakistan in the immediate neighbourhood having generated legitimate fear far and wide, Nepal has cooled considerably to involvement in the BRI in recent months.
The postponement of Prachanda’s visit to India in the past few months was largely due to the political instability that his government faced within Nepal. The Nepalese Prime Minister has had to make eight cabinet expansions in the past five months in an effort to keep his flock together. The perpetually volatile political space in Nepal has also meant that there have been two successive changes in the ruling coalition that came to power in December 2022, and a number of corruption scandals have also erupted. Prachanda came to power in December in a dramatic coalition somersault after he dumped the Nepali Congress and was joined by former Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli-led Nepal Communist Party – Unified Marxist Leninist (NCP-UML) that helped him become the Prime Minister for a third time since the end of monarchy in Nepal. However, the leftist coalition broke up in February over a disagreement regarding the candidature of the post of President. Subsequently, Ram Chandra Poudel was elected President with support from the Nepali Congress (NC) and Prachanda’s Nepal Communist Party - Maoist Centre. The revival of the NC-Maoist Centre coalition, however, has been hit by several controversies over the past three months, and these have drawn attention to the role of the post-monarchy power elite.
According to a statement issued by Nepal’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Prachanda’s entourage included Minister for Foreign Affairs Narayan Prakash Saud, Minister for Finance Prakash Sharan Mahat, Minister for Energy, Water Resources and Irrigation Minister Shakti Basnet, Minister for Physical Infrastructure and Transport Prakash Jwala, and Minister for Industry Commerce and Supplies Ramesh Rijal. As for the agenda of his visit, on the evening of his arrival Prachanda was scheduled to attend a function organized by the Nepali Embassy in honour of his delegation. The following day, 1 June, a slew of agreements, memoranda of understanding and ceremonies were lined up following delegation-level talks between Prime Minister Dahal and his Indian counterpart in New Delhi. Several Indian ministers and officials, including National Security Adviser (NSA) Ajit Doval, and Foreign Secretary Vinay Mohan Kawatra, were scheduled to call on the Nepalese Prime Minister ahead of the delegation-level talks.
The Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) informed that Prime Minister Dahal would pay courtesy calls on Indian President Droupadi Murmu and Vice-President Jagdeep Dhankhar. He would also address the Nepal-India Business Summit in New Delhi to be jointly organized by the Federation of Nepalese Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FNCCI) and the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII), the ministry said. The release from the MEA further said that “In addition to the official engagements, Prime Minister Dahal will also be visiting Ujjain and Indore (in the Indian state of Madhya Pradesh) as part of his visit”.
According to his aides, Prachanda met former Nepalese premiers, foreign ministers and leaders of different political parties prior to his departure for India and discussed matters related to his upcoming visit. At the event in the Nepali Embassy in New Delhi Prachanda asserted that “The objective of my visit is to take bilateral ties to a new level”. The Kathmandu Post said Nepal was likely to sign an energy deal during Prachanda’s visit to New Delhi, and that the two sides would conclude at least six agreements, include on water and agriculture cooperation. The Prime Minister had earlier also said that he would raise the issue of providing air routes to Nepal during bilateral talks in New Delhi. He said, “We are seriously discussing the matter regarding the air route and we are expecting some positive outcome on the issue”.
According to Nepal’s Foreign Minister Saud, during the bilateral talks the entire gamut of bilateral interests and concerns would be discussed, including electricity trade, construction of transmission lines, and opening of integrated check posts. Similarly, there will be discussions on promotion of Indian investment in Nepal’s energy and hydropower, trade and transport, and airways. Nepal has prioritized the issue of long-term energy trade with India. Similarly, Nepal has been urging India to pave the way for electricity trade in Bangladesh. Bangladesh has already agreed to take 50 MW of electricity from Nepal.
Nepalese officials were quoted by The Kathmandu Post as saying that agreement on a common digital payment, construction of a dry port in the Chandani-Dodhara area of Nepal, inauguration of the integrated check posts in Nepalgunj, and setting up a new integrated check post in Bhairahawa were all likely to be agreed upon during Prachanda’s visit. Also on the agenda were the inauguration of the rail yard in Biratnagar, construction and extension of two petroleum pipelines, allowing the broadcast of Nepal Television in India, energy trading between Nepal and Bangladesh via India, agreement on electricity trading between two state-owned agencies for 25 years so as to avoid frequent approvals, the construction of Lower Arun and Phukot Karnali by Indian developers, cross-border transmission lines, and the supply of chemical fertilizer to Nepal.
Saud underlined that “Our main challenges are to tackle the outstanding issues by forging understanding on the basis of priority and to move forward by forging collaboration in various areas of development. In this way, we can sort out differences if there are any. The transit treaty has already expired in 2019 and Nepal wants to renew it as soon as possible because it is very important for landlocked Nepal”. He pointed out that officials of the two countries were already engaged in preparations for signing the transit treaty. Saud further said that Nepal had a huge trade deficit with India, and to reduce this gap Kathmandu would like to have a concession in customs duty for its products being exported to India. He said that “We will also discuss India’s assistance in the construction of some bridges that would connect far-West Nepal’s Dadeldhura district with Uttarakhand of India to facilitate the transport of people and goods”. Nepal also wants collaboration with India in the field of agriculture. On the boundary issue, Saud said that a joint boundary working group was already working on it, and that the concerned government officials of the two countries would resolve the outstanding issues through dialogue and negotiations.
Ahead of the meeting between Prachanda and Modi, India’s National Security Adviser Ajit Doval and Foreign Secretary Vinay Mohan Kwatra jointly called on Prachanda. An aide to the Nepalese Prime Minister informed that “The meeting (with Doval and Kwatra) set the tone of the visit and some crucial agendas were discussed. Mostly, they discussed ways to address Nepal’s concerns that were likely to come up during the meeting between the two prime ministers”. These included the boundary disputes, the report of the Eminent Persons’ Group on Nepal-India relations, and the opening of new air routes. Saud pragmatically postulated that “Some of our concerns will be raised and discussed while some disputes will take time to resolve”.
Before his meeting with Narendra Modi, Prachanda said, “I am happy with the way I was received at the airport and the hospitality I got. We are hoping for some breakthroughs in trade and transit during my talks with Modi-ji”. Prime Minister Modi, after concluding his wide-ranging talks with Prachanda, said that he and the Nepalese leader had taken many important decisions to make the partnership between the two countries a “super hit” in the future. He added, in the presence of Prachanda, that “We will continue to strive to take our relationship to Himalayan heights. And in this spirit, we will resolve all the issues, be it boundary related or any other issue”. Following the talks, Modi and Prachanda jointly launched several infrastructure projects, and the two sides also signed seven agreements to boost cooperation in a wide range of areas, including trade and energy. The two leaders virtually inaugurated integrated check posts at Rupaidiha in India and Nepalgunj in Nepal. They also virtually flagged off a cargo train from Bathnaha in Bihar to Nepal custom yard.
Prachanda’s chief political adviser Haribol Gajurel told The Kathmandu Post that the main purpose of Prachanda’s visit was to build trust between Nepal and India, which under K.P. Oli had sunk to a low. Gajurel did not expect much in terms of boundary dispute resolution, as it could be a time-consuming process. Some deals on economic cooperation between the two countries, including long-term Nepali energy export to India and Bangladesh, would be agreed upon during the visit. Gajurel said that “Such deals would ease our import burden”. He added, “On the boundary front, the solution is a bit complex and time-consuming. There is no reason to overhype the boundary issue. We need to gradually build trust and resolve differences, and only then embark on resolving boundary matters”.
Jyoti Malhotra, senior consulting editor at The Print, believes that “This visit to India should be seen by Prachanda as a move to consolidate his position. India has backed Prachanda, like it usually does traditional political parties such as the Nepali Congress, because it doesn’t fully trust Oli”. Further, “India realises that the Chinese dragon is expanding influence across the subcontinent – from Nepal and Bhutan in the Himalayas to Maldives and Sri Lanka in the Indian Ocean. The wooing of the Prachandra-Deuba duo is as much a function of Delhi’s comfort that its friends are in power in Nepal, rather than its antagonists… That’s the message of Prachanda’s trip to India – to tell PM Modi that he values India’s friendship and vice-versa. Prachanda knows that his country needs economic aid, especially as the region emerges from Covid, so Delhi’s gift of wheat is very welcome. Prachanda also realises that it is foolish to sit in opposition to an India that is growing strong and part of the world’s most powerful organisations like the G-20”. Malhotra pointed out that “Delhi would also like a steady and stable Nepal that also protects its interests. Prachanda and Deuba seem like a good combination to do exactly that”.
After the disappointments of the K.P. Sharma Oli days the relationship between India and Nepal has been on the mend, and Prachanda’s visit to India is a visual demonstration of the intent of both sides to expand overall ties while deftly managing contentious issues.
